The big problem with the Democratic government over the past four years has been that they haven't owned or even properly addressed any of the serious underlying problems they've been facing. Everything has been laid at the door of the previous administration, with the tacit assumption that now that the Republicans were out of power, the problems would be solved by fiat.
How to approach this over the next four years (as a conservative or libertarian) is tricky. Getting liberals to admit that they have a problem and need to find a solution (really, many problems, and many solutions) is essential, but when people are invested in something, it becomes very difficult to get them to admit they made a mistake. They will often back up their mistake with increasingly irrational responses rather than admit that the original decision was wrong.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at Wed Nov 7 06:38:37 2012 (PiXy!)
2
Bricky, you make some very good points, but you're too optomistic. I and a number of people said the same thing regarding the social conservatives four years ago -- they were poison to our cause. We tried to make a (third-party) go of it then, but failed due to lack of money, leadership, focus, and everything else needed to succeed. Oh, and the minor matter of a schism -- by the social conservatives. We never recovered, and I can tell you -- the liberals can't tell the them from the Tea Parties, and nobody can tell either from the "false flag" operations mounted by the GOP.
In four years, it won't be "difficult"; it will be impossible. The EU will fall into chaos by then, and I expect Europe to start falling under the sway of fascists in fact if not name, with war to follow. Greece is already heading there. We'll be suffering from a broken economy, China will be in a succession crises and looking for a diversion, and Mexico is a mess.
What to do now? We can't "close the deal" when half the country thinks the "deal" is being taken care of the other half's productivity. The voters will (continue to) flock to whomever promises them food and security.
I'm too old and decrepit to tilt at windmills any more. My plan is to hunker down in a ringside seat with a drink and try to survive watching the fall of Western Civilization. The end is beer.
This assumes I'm not in the equivalent of a re-education camp somewhere for wrongspeak.
Oh wait, been there, done that. It was called "diversity training."
3
Ubu: I'm most assuredly not optimistic.
I'm a history buff. The road we are on is well traveled, but only in one direction.
Still, despair is a sin, and we simply must turn this around, because civilization is precious and there is nowhere to run.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Wed Nov 7 15:20:44 2012 (e9h6K)
4
1. The NEA has raised a couple generations of American students to expect the government to give them what they want, and that there is no need to actually go out and earn it themselves. Most of the young voters I have talked to have never been exposed an alternative political argument, and in fact have been conditioned to tune out any opposing viewpoints because they are, by definition, racist/sexist/Fascist/etc.
2. The majority of the members of the supposed Fourth Estate were educated as "journalists", which means they feel their purpose is to advance a social agenda, and not report facts . In other words, they are political propagandists. Even as a growing number of voters turn away from traditional sources such as newspapers, magazines, and TV/radio news programs, most are still being spoon-fed one political viewpoint disguised as "news".
3. The majority of the entertainment industry is also committed to pushing leftist agendas, just so long as they are exempted with special tax breaks, etc.
Right now, I just don't see any prospects to turning things around in my lifetime...
Posted by: Siergen at Wed Nov 7 19:23:21 2012 (Ao4Kw)
5
Eh... not all the glories of Rome were in the era of the Republic.
The one bright ray of sunshine, if you can call it that, is that though we are beset by problems, it's worse almost everywhere else. Things are exceedingly unlikely to go wrong here first, and the worse off it is elsewhere, the more we benefit in terms of relative competitiveness. Already it's one of the prime enablers of our spending spree - the treasury bonds keep coming in because if the US goes under, there's no other safe harbor for the money anyway.
And if things go bad everywhere? Well, not to put it too bluntly, but in a savage world of tooth and claw, nobody has fangs to match ours. In point of fact, nobody is even in the same class, excepting the broad class of "countries who have nuclear weapons", and of those none other have anything even remotely like our ability to project power abroad. You could even go so far to say that the current system of international trade and commerce exists entirely at the whim of the US - were we determined to stop it, not a single tanker would reach port, nor a single pipeline continue to pump gas. It's not good to make too big a deal of it, and obviously it would be PREFERABLE not to have to go down that road, but if the shit hits the fan...
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Wed Nov 7 22:56:07 2012 (pWQz4)
2012 First Election ResultsDixville Notch, a town in New Hampshire traditionally opens the polls at 12:01 on election day. As the town has less than 20 people they certify their vote early. They've been an accurate predictor in the past every single year since...um...2000.
Anyway they're the first polling location to have certified results as of a few minutes ago and the result was...A TIE!
I think we can all reach a bipartisan consensus that as omens go, this is a bad one.
UPDATE: Oh yeah...a prediction.
I think its likely to be EITHER Obama in a squeaker, or Romney in a blowout. That is, if it's Obama he will just get his base and little else. If it's Romney then some states will have shifted dramatically and I think it will be a cascade of red across the map.
"How Can You Possibly Believe That?"
I hear that from time to time. As some of you know I'm in college. So on those occasions I allow myself, either be accident or design to by "outed" as to my political leanings I frequently get words to that effect.
"Oh you have got to be squidding me! He's carping about pollacktics again. Thank Cod this election season is fin-ally over"
1
Cutting loose the dead weight would seem to be the number one skill needed by an incoming president these days. Cautiously optimistic here on the far side of the world (as a small-l libertarian myself, inoculated early on by Robert Heinlein).
Posted by: Pixy Misa at Tue Nov 6 09:15:03 2012 (PiXy!)
A lot of people's private retirement accounts are tied up in the stock markets, due to an overwhelming advantage in taxation. The government has been encouraging people to put money in 401(k)-type plans for ages.
This has resulted in a great deal of money being allocated into stocks that otherwise wouldn't necessarily be in that market. (Granted that some of it has also gone into bonds.) And, lo and behold, as we've seen retirement plans switch from traditional pensions to individual stock accounts, the index value of the stock market has multiplied several times...
Unfortunately for us, we have a well-known demographic bubble ahead. What happens when all of those boomers stop putting money into the stock market for retirement, and start taking it out in order to actually retire? The answer is going to be a general decline in stock prices across the board, the same way as we've seen a general increase, right?
So what's going to happen when a bunch of baby boomers who are on the cusp of retirement suddenly see their stock holdings start to lose value? Those who can get out of the market will do so... sparking further reductions in prices, spooking more boomers. It's at least the seed of a full-blown stock panic...
Leaving that aside, the US faces a different set of problems than, say, Weimar or Zimbabwe.
Those two countries were effectively powerless. The US... well, it ain't. Anyone who believes that the US economy would enter a death spiral and not decide to export some of its problems is being delusional...
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Tue Nov 6 15:28:50 2012 (GJQTS)
3
I'll agree with you on everything but education. Depending on the government for education is like handing politicians a blank check and saying "please use whatever you need to propagandize our children."
Posted by: RHJunior at Wed Nov 7 11:12:23 2012 (hZlxe)
"You're back quick!" "Yeah...darnedest thing...my sister had left me a sammich."
The last two episodes of Sword Art Online seemed a bit muddled and occasionally forced but they did advance the story.
This episode did not actually move the merry band of travelers along very much but it DID regain the shows earlier pace and character oriented feel.
It also established a few things:
*The racial divisions in the Fairy Game; They had mentioned this in passing previously, but it does seem to be a plot element. I'm not sure how much of this is the Japanese cultural "In/Out group" dynamics and how much of this is supposed to feel wrong to the audience, but it certainly seems like an unhealthy dynamic that is hardwired into the game setup. Somewhat related, there is a very strong prejudice against players not in guilds and teams from different races.
*This is further complicated by the fact that one really needs to be in a town or other designated safe place in order to log out (or ones avatar will get looted/killed and one will take the hit in a loss of XPs and items.)
*The guilds and adventure parties in the game are 'seruius bidness'. "Leaf" tells her guild leader that she won't be gaming with them for a few days and he freaks to the point that the guild are no longer contacts, they are enemies. This dovetails into the unhealthy "culture" of the games world.
*Our party is being stalked.
*Meanwhile, Asuna is in an impossible and demoralizing situation, but while she may be the 'princess trapped in the tower', (of both the game and the plot) she still has kept her wits about her and she manages to remain an impressive and interesting character.
"Oh, I'm just reflecting on my next move."
*****
This leads to an interesting dichotomy. On the one hand, our
hero probably* won't die if killed in the game, ( he'll take an XP hit and probably loose his kit) but he does have two major time critical issues (one he doesn't know about yet).
Asuna is to be "married" (technically placed in the guardianship of Sugo) in a matter of weeks or even days.
Unbeknownst to Kazuto, Sugo is nearing completion of his experiments on the test subjects he brainlocked from SAO. He is very close to being capable of rewriting Asuna's brain to his liking, essentially killing her and making her a functional automoton.. More importantly to the world at large, he is only a little further from refining the technology so he can not only directly enslave people hooked up to nerve gear helmets but plant more subtle suggestions in the minds of people playing online games or otherwise using Nerve-Gear tech.
This means that the stakes are actually much higher than they were in the first half of the series.
All in all the show seems to be well and truly back on track.
* I say "probably" because due to poverty and lack of time he's using the nerve gear headset from the original game. It's possible (albeit unlikely) that, while he can log out now, "dying" might still trip the brain-fryer.
UPDATE: That last paragraph was previously an incoherent word salad that has now been fixed.
Yes. Indeed. It seems on the surface the stakes are less serious but any nontrivial delay and everything goes to hell. And yeah, the specter of Manchurianizational mischief being performed in the game itself is certainly there. If not now, very soon.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Mon Nov 5 04:37:31 2012 (e9h6K)
3
The forced competition between all 7 races is the five-bladed razor of realm-vs-realm PvP; in real MMOs, it's mostly just an excuse to be a dick to the opposing faction, but apparently in VR, players actually (gasp) roleplay it. But if one race wins the ultimate prize, the gameworld will implode. (of course, that, along with what a race has to do to win, reflects the character of its creator...)
It looks like Asuna will get some much-needed screen time next episode. While I'd like to see her hit Our Villain over the head with a chair and shove him out a window, perhaps that will have to wait until she wakes up. :-)
On a side note, the in-game fanservice makes perfect sense, since ALO doesn't force you to look like your avatar the way SAO did, but Suguha is perhaps even more impressive in the real world. If that's what she looks like in junior high, she may have to give up kendo when she reaches high school. Or switch to a different anime genre!
-j
Posted by: J Greely at Mon Nov 5 13:13:25 2012 (2XtN5)
4
I've been following your SAO posts for a while, and Monday night I finally pulled the trigger, watching eps 1-6 in a single sitting. Last night I stayed up till about 3am (not like I would have been able to sleep anyhow..) and caught up to episode 18. I can't remember the last time I mainlined a series like that. Good stuff! Of course, I'm now regretting that I didn't wait until is was complete....
It is nice to see that Asuna, even in the forced role of caged princess, is struggling against despair and thinking her way through the problem. Next ep should be a good one!
Posted by: David at Wed Nov 7 17:44:53 2012 (+C5m6)
...and then it hit me.
So the other night I was looking at Vocaloid videos, many of which had several less well known members of the Vocaloid pantheon. In the process, I blundered into this one and was curious which particular Vocaloids these...
...Vocaloi..
...loi..
.....Oh no.
Oh dear God no...
The Touhou business going on in the background just makes it that much more surreal.
I wonder if this is societal reintegration therapy.
We were already getting gale force winds and rain when it was down off Georgia. Hurricane force winds extend 110 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend out nearly 500 miles.
UPDATE 14:50 Monday.
Raining cats and dogs outside wind is about 20 kts with gusts up to 50.
It started raining gently around noon....in the bathroom.
Turns out the turbine vent was not sealed properly when the house was re-roofed last month. We've also lost some shingles. Much scampering was done, on a roof in high winds. My 70 year old dad refused to stay off the roof. In any event thanks to a tarp, a trash bag and a hose clamp the precipitation in the bathroom has ceased.
Two feet of water standing in back yard, and our street is impassible to the west. It took me twice as long as usual to get to work this morning due to detours due to flooding and horizontal trees. Winds here are expected to pick up dramatically tonight and return to tropical storm force for 16-20 hours. We're in that odd position of having had the storm pass us ....yet its getting closer.
Keep in mind we here in Virginia have only been and only will be grazed by this storm, In comparison New Jersey, PA and NYC (and possibly the Appalachians) are going to get CLOBBERED tonight and tomorrow. I sincerely hope no one else is hurt...but I also hope James Woolcott gets very very wet.
1
From what I've read, the story told in these books definitely suffers from "good grief, what do I do now?", and as much as the first story needed to be fleshed out for the anime, the second needs to be trimmed back. I'm willing to trust the animation team for a while, because they succeeded in making me care about both main characters in the first half.
I don't think they're going to try to explain too much, though, and Lyfa-imoutoko's lack of curiosity about the disparity between his knowledge and his skill really sticks out; there needed to be at least one sentence hand-waving that away. On the bright side, there's one slender thread of hope that Asuna isn't completely stuck in damsel-in-distress mode. Her despair is genuine, but she's still cool enough to try to spot the password that opens the door of her cage.
No matter how they end this season, though, I hope they stop there, because apart from some side stories that might make nice specials, it looks like the rest of the main novels are Kirito solo adventures, with Asuna and other friends left behind in the real world.
-j
Posted by: J Greely at Sun Oct 28 21:09:34 2012 (2XtN5)
Recursions
I thought that the Gangnam meme was pretty played out, but via Ace comes this...which is truly a thing of beauty, (unless you are sufficiently deprived and pitiful as to be unaware of Jack Burton)
That's actually James Wong!
That video makes the whole silly thing worthwhile. That is why Psy was put on this earth...to inspire that. Now we can rest contentedly as the fad fades into oblivion, or rather...comes to its Downfall.
Good grief! It's Godwin Style!
If that is not recursive enough for you, you're probably a hipster and I can't do anything for you....except link to this.
This Could Be a Sticky Situation
This is a couple of weeks old but it's kind of odd. It seems that up in Canada millions of gallons of Maple syrup went missing some time ago. Now the police have seized 600 barrels from a store in New Brunswick which has been implicated in the heist.
But that's not the odd part...
The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers reported large quantities
of syrup missing last month during a routine inventory, finding empty
barrels at a site of the province's global strategic reserve ...
Quebec has a global strategic reserve...of maple syrup?
UNEXPECTEDLY....
....Oregon is in the crosshairs. It looks like Steven's smugness has jinxed Oregon and doomed us all.
In all seriousness, this really does have the potential to be a first class calamity.
This thing is a queer storm to begin with because it is so damned big,
tropical storm force winds extend over 200 miles from its eyewall as I
type this.
The big worry is up north. If, as expected, it turns into a hybrid nor'easter and then hits a cold front it will develop along very similar lines to the great 1888 blizzard. Its current track looks to bring utter disaster to central PA, but if it hits just south of New York it will push a maximum amount of surge into the Hudson.
Thus the nightmare 'hurricane hits NYC just right' scenario is still a possibility. The surge from this storm is likely to be much greater than a normal storm of its wind speed due to its great size and in any event these "Frankenstorms" are fiendishly difficult to predict (very few have happened).
Down here in Virginia, a 50 mile difference in the things track
east tor west will make the difference between a rainy windy day and actual
excitement.
For my part the generator is tested and I'll be getting additional water and petrol on the way home from school. While I don't expect a great deal of major damage around here except, perhaps, at the oceanfront, I do expect to loose power and web access, possibly for several days.
Hmmmm....
It's a bit early in the game to loose sleep over one of these fickle beasts, but Brendan Loy thinks this might well be a big thing. In any event it could be quite bad to be in NYC or New England next week.
TANSTAFAAFL (Otaku edition)
A few weeks ago (on Drudge I think) there was a story about how Internet service providers were getting astoundingly efficient at tracking people who log into sketchy download sites like Mediafire and the sites that link to them heavily, but that they didn't seem to be doing anything about it and it was unclear what they were up to. I'll be damned if I can find it now, but I thought of it when I read this.
Under the new copyright alert system, Internet service providers (ISPs)
will send a series of alerts to subscribers whose accounts may have been
used to illegally distribute music, movies or other entertainment
content via file-sharing. If the subscriber does not respond to the
first set of alerts, which will include educational material on
protecting copyrights and the consequences of illegal file-sharing, the
Internet service provider may temporarily slow down their Internet
speeds, direct them to an online tutorial when they try to access
popular websites or implement other penalties--called "mitigation
measures."
This is to be implemented over the "next couple of weeks" so those of you who are torrenting be aware that now might be a good time to go straight.
Internet users in Japan who illegally download copyright content will
face new penalties after a change to the law. They will now face up to
two years in jail or up fines to two million yen (US$25,700).
This might explain any slowness in torrents appearing.
Now, it is true that the Japanese AV media model is indeed made of fail and unsustainability. It is also true that these rather non-proportional penalties indicate a desperate attempt to keep that moribund business plan afloat. But something needs to be done, and especially given the sense of entitlement to free downloads expressed by many fans and the state of the US anime industry (which is due at least in part to piracy) my first instinct is to be OK with this despite the crazy penalties.
However, the lack of proportionality in the penalties would seem to indicate a very heavy handed approach, that might not recognize things like fair use or parody.... or image macros.
UPDATE: Japan has had US style fair use exceptions since 2008 so that final paragraph was inaccurate.
It should also be noted that the penalties for UP-loaders are rather more severe..
...uploaders of copyright infringing music and videos face a maximum
penalty of a 10-year prison sentence and a 10 million yen fine (US$128,
318 ), said BBC news.
..so what I meant by " This might explain any slowness in torrents appearing." is those of you who depend upon Anime gods in Japan uploading shows to torrent may find the torrents slow to appear for download as said anime gods ability to do so may be somewhat inhibited in the near future.
1
Clear (nee ClearWire) already slows torrents. It can even tell which traffic is which, slowing my torrents while allowing YouTube to run full speed. "Yeah Clear, tell me again how 4 am is peak usage time".
And when the class action lawsuit comes through, I'm gonna be getting a pretty tidy credit.
Posted by: Mauser at Sat Oct 20 03:29:16 2012 (cZPoz)
2
I'd love to see the class action suit that would result from this. "They provide the service we pay for except that they inadequately facilitate our theft!"
I don't think a judge is likely to find the argument compelling.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sat Oct 20 10:20:10 2012 (e9h6K)
4
It's a bit of Topic drift, but the lawsuit was over them advertising high speed wireless internet, promising that you'd never be throttled ("Unlimited" they said), and that you could watch video on it, but especially for NetFlix subscribers, they got totally killed by the throttling (the algorithm was VERY broken when they implemented it. An hour of heavy use could knock you down to sub 56K modem speeds for a week). Plus they had HUGE cancellation fees.
Posted by: Mauser at Sun Oct 21 00:10:22 2012 (cZPoz)
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